PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITY: ASSET OR LIABILITY
Whenever there is a debate on Pakistan’s nuclear capability, the discourse often turns to the question whether the country’s arsenal is an asset or a liability. The enquiry may seem simple but the answer to it isn’t as plain
and artless.
Pakistan’s nuclear program goes as far back as 1956, less than a decade after the country’s founding. This was the year when PAEC (Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission), the body assigned to explore alternative energy sources, was formed.
CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE FIRST KIND
When India carried out its nuclear tests in 1974, Pakistan, in reaction, embarked on nuclear weapons development. It is a well known fact that the animosity and belligerence of the two countries is almost eternal. Their tit-for-tat actions are not only automatic but inevitable as well. Yet the big powers, at that time, enforced sanctions on Pakistan and not on India—the initiator of the weapons race. But Pakistan’s perseverance was single-minded and culminated in 1998 with two tests in the barren mountainous region of Baluchistan.
Much before the landmark event, defence analysts have been claiming that the country has an undeclared stockpile of nuclear warheads. More than two decades later, Pakistan is the only Muslim country with an arsenal of nearly 150 weapons, according to some estimates. Many nations, including the US, have not reconciled with the fact that a Muslim country possesses arms of mass destruction although they are meant to provide effective deterrence against its hostile neighbor, India.
On one side, the Indian government never wastes an opportunity to discredit Pakistan’s capability and always aims to paint a bleak picture of the security. Recently, the Indian air chief spoke of surgical strikes on Pakistan’s nuclear installations. The Foreign Minister of Pakistan dismissed the statement with contempt and branded it as mischievous and irresponsible. He reiterated that such a misadventure, if at all it is conducted, would be met with a befitting response that can escalate to a full scale war.
The US, on the other hand has been building a narrative that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of rogue elements. They often speak of neutralizing the weapons before extremists lay their hands on it. As if a bunch of arms wielding rogues will come riding on pickups and cease the weapons to make use of them according to their whims and imagination. After 9/11 the US has a constant narrative that alleges that extremist elements inside the army and the country will try to take over the charge of nuclear weapons. And that after such a development, the world would no longer be a safe place. The US goes on to validate its intention to de-nuclearize the state before such an uncontrollable situation arises.
Analysts agree that the narrative has more to do with Pakistan’s rejection of American demands to cap its nuclear programme. The threat of extremist attack or rogue insiders taking control of the nuclear button is not only unrealistic but also ridiculous. Nuclear weapons are not ordinary devices. They are riddled with complex processes requiring specialized skills. Not everyone can manage or use them let alone deliver for mass destruction.
Such stories and allegations are cast aside by Pakistan as mere propaganda aimed at promoting their own objectives. The authorities in Pakistan, including the powerful army, believe that the real threat comes from India and the US. Both the countries are hostile to and fear Pakistan’s nuclear capability. The story built around the terrorists, extremists and rogues is far from credible and is only a figment of imagination. Only the gullible will buy that story.
Pakistan’s nuclear strategy is based on effective deterrence policy. The country links the security of nuclear installations with national security. That is why a multilayered and foolproof mechanism of security has been in place long before the tests of 1998. And there have been constant improvements and refinements to that mechanism in order to bring it at par with the emerging trends and ever changing technology.
The top most command and control body for the purpose is the NCA (National Command Authority). With the prime minister in the chair, NCA includes ministers of interior, finance and foreign affairs besides all the three services chiefs. The NCAworks closely with the SPD (Strategic Plans Division) which is assigned the tasks to ensure all security measures, technological solutions and personnel reliability. The NCA often deliberates on policy matters related to procurement, employment, security and nuclear works. The SPD, in essence, is an executive body which also enjoys the support of Tri Services Strategic Command. The entire structure of security rests on legal, regulatory, institutional and operational frameworks. With all these levels of planning, management and execution, an extra precaution is also in place: the weapons and the delivery system are strategically located to
increase safety.
The coordination and camaraderie between the NCA and SPD, together with strict adherence to protocols, have made the security impregnable. In the past two decades, not even a single security threat was detected or reported. If there had been any loophole or vulnerability, the hostile nations like India, Israel and USA might have attempted to penetrate and cause extensive damage.
To meet any eventuality like the one that occurred at Chernobyl in Ukraine, Pakistan has also put in place a nuclear watchdog for protection of nuclear materials, control of fissile material, transportation, etc. This further enhances the value and reliability of the nuclear programme.
The Director General of IAEA appreciated Pakistan’s nuclear safety measures. The Obama administration also recognized the fact and expressed similar sentiments. Some scholars have said that ‘threats to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal have been greatly exaggerated.’
CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE SECOND KIND
Contrary to the threats of physical damage, which are based more on flights of fancy rather than on credible evidence, the threat of cyber attacks are not only worrisome but also real. Some attacks like the one on South Korean nuclear power plant and the Iranian centrifuge facility are testimony to the fact that cyber attacks on nuclear installations should be feared and guarded against.
But what actually would happen if any nuclear facility experiences a cyber attack? Will it trigger the dreaded chain reaction? Or will it induce some changes that will render the facility into a dysfunctional state?
Studies have shown that cyber attacks can cause malfunctions or damage to equipment. The hackers of Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power penetrated the systems in South Korean facility and stole vital and confidential information. They released the information on the dark web for everyone to see.
The attack on Iranian nuclear plant was more sinister. It caused serious damage to the sensitive centrifuge equipment that enriched uranium. The virus, called Stuxnet, caused the centrifuge machines to spin out of control and break down.
In this particular case, some dedicated hackers scattered the malware in small storage devices in and around the computers that regulated the processes. Some employee, curious about the contents of the small storage devices, may have put it in some computer and that allowed the malware to penetrate the system and cause the damage.
Even in the presence of ‘air gap’ the malware managed to enter the sensitive and critical computers because someone at the facility did not care to follow the precautionary measures. Hackers know that attacking the systems that control processes is key to inflicting damage.
Commonly, there is a human factor in a successful cyber attack. Only if people take basic safety precautions, like resisting to click on unknown attachments and taking care not to use unknown external devices on sensitive and critical systems, the percentage of successful cyber attacks would be heavily curtailed. What is alarming though is the threats of cyber attacks on nuclear facilities is growing exponentially. And the hackers are becoming skillful with each passing day. They are devising newer methods and adopting novel strategies to penetrate their targets. By the time cyber security experts think of a strategy to deal with them, the hackers move a step further and devise yet other methods and strategies to cause headaches.
Still, the nuclear facilities are heavily guarded against physical and technical damages. Even if the hackers find a way to penetrate the computers of a nuclear power plant, the likelihood of causing a radiation leak is miniscule. However, they can damage the equipment and material by inducing malfunctions in processes.
Pakistan’s NCA and SPDfully recognize the fact and have activated a full spectrum full-spectrum security mechanism for the security and safety of the strategic assets.So, the question still remains: Is Pakistan’s nuclear facility an asset or a liability?
So long as Pakistan’s nuclear firepower ensures effective deterrence against India’s belligerent attitude, it is a huge asset. But it is a liability when hostile states are bent upon destroying or neutralizing it.
The people who have been assigned a role in the command and control setup would do well to focus their energies on providing impregnable defenses to the facility.If the facility is safe and sound, an effective deterrence will be in place automatically.